Chad combined elections: Candidate submissions open despite calls for postponement

2024 chad blog combined elections candidate submissions postponement eisa transparent democratic governance in africa

Chad’s political landscape is heating up as the country prepares for legislative, provincial, and municipal elections set for December 29, 2024. While the Agence Nationale de Gestion des Election (ANGE) is moving forward with preparations, several opposition parties, including Les Transformateurs and those grouped under the Groupe de Concertation des Acteurs Politiques (GCAP), are raising concerns about holding the elections under unfavorable climatic conditions.

Opposition parties swinging between participation and boycott

The GCAP: In a press conference organized on 21 September 2024, the GCAP, representing a coalition of opposition parties, has called for the postponement of the elections, citing a compromised electoral timeline due to persistent flooding, lack of the voter register update, and alleged electoral manipulation. The Front for Free, Inclusive, and Transparent Elections (FELIT) echoes these criticisms, arguing that the redistricting process unfairly benefits the ruling party, the Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS). GCAP insists that proceeding with elections under the current circumstances could severely undermine the legitimacy of the results and jeopardize the democratic process.

The situation is further complicated by the flooding, which has affected several regions, delaying the electoral mapping process and rendering certain areas inaccessible. Electoral mapping is a key step in distributing electoral materials and preparing provisional voter lists. Although ANGE has introduced measures, such as allowing candidates to submit nominations in provincial capitals, GCAP and other political actors remain skeptical about the electoral body’s ability to organize transparent elections in such challenging conditions.

Les Transformateurs: Led by Succès Masra, Les Transformateurs also initially called for a postponement, citing the severe flooding that has resulted in nearly 600 deaths and affected millions of people. Masra argued that it would be impossible to conduct a fair electoral campaign under these circumstances. While the party primarily considered boycotting the elections, Masra has left the door open for participation, provided certain conditions are met, including revising the electoral code and redistricting, and postponing the elections to 2025.

Despite these calls for postponement, President Mahamat Idriss Déby has maintained the December 29, 2024 election date, asserting that the floods do not hinder the electoral process. This decision has been poorly received by Les Transformateurs, which has since joined other parties in boycotting the elections. Yet, amidst this political maneuvering, RNDP-Le Réveil, led by Pahimi Padacké, remains a wildcard.

RNDP-Le Réveil and others: Pahimi Padacké had previously criticized the referendum with a biting metaphor, comparing it to a football match played at night in a poorly lit stadium. In a recent speech, Padacké issued a stern warning: “After a referendum stolen from the people and a presidential election won without witnesses in the polling stations, the ruling coalition is preparing to replay the same record. RNDP-Le Réveil warns against any plans of fraud and calls on the Chadian people to remain vigilant.” It is worth noting that despite his earlier criticisms – calling the referendum a “match without an opponent” – Padacké ultimately chose to back the electoral process, participating in the presidential race with the belief that he could influence the debates. Even more surprising was his warm congratulation of his opponent following the announcement of provisional results, leaving some observers questioning his true position.

These discreet maneuvers reflect the ambition of certain parties to wield greater influence on the national political scene, despite the tensions and calls for a boycott that resonate within a portion of the opposition.

While several opposition parties openly declare their intention to boycott the upcoming elections, others, such as RNDP-Le Réveil led by Pahimi Padacké and the Movement of Chadian Patriots for the Republic (MPTR) led by Brice Mbaimon, President of the Democratic Alliance parliamentary group at the CNT, are adopting a more cautious strategy, refraining from revealing their official stance. This tactical silence has sparked widespread speculation. It is highly likely that these parties are engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations to secure a strategic and advantageous participation, aiming to maximize their electoral gains. Such negotiations could allow them to place a significant number of their candidates in Parliament and local councils, thereby strengthening their influence within legislative institutions.

This scenario would provide these parties with a unique opportunity to aspire to key positions, such as the presidency of the National Assembly or the Senate. These discreet maneuvers reflect the ambition of certain parties to wield greater influence on the national political scene, despite the tensions and calls for a boycott that resonate within a portion of the opposition. If this strategy materializes, it could reshape the balance of power, offering these parties considerable influence in the next legislatures.

Consequences of the Boycott

Boycotting legislative elections can have profound consequences on the balance of power and democracy in a country. Togo’s 2018 example illustrates these risks well. By refusing to participate in legislative elections, the Togolese opposition left the ruling party, Union pour la Republique (UNIR), free to secure an overwhelming majority in parliament. This near-total domination enabled the regime to amend the constitution with little resistance, notably by removing presidential term limits, paving the way for indefinite rule.

A similar situation could unfold in Chad if the opposition persists in boycotting the upcoming legislative and local elections. Without meaningful political diversity in parliament, the MPS and its allies could govern without checks and balances, potentially enabling constitutional changes that consolidate their rule. The challenge of such a scenario is that the MPS and its allies solve the Schrödinger’s equation by satisfying every party member of the coalition.

Dr Pierre Kadi Sossou is the Country Director of EISA’s Chad Office.

This blog post was made possible thanks to financial support from the European Union under grant agreement No. NDICI AFRICA/2022/435-927. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EU.