Tanzania

This paper argues that the 2025 elections in Tanzania were both qualitatively and quantitatively distinct from all previous elections held since the reintroduction of the multiparty system in 1992. While the six preceding elections –1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 – were regarded as unfree and unfair, none were characterised by the scale of overt violence observed in 2025. The 2025 elections thus represent a significant escalation in state repression, signalling a clear shift to a new and more entrenched phase of authoritarianism. Tanzania’s electoral regime appears to have transitioned from a competitive authoritarian system to a hegemonic authoritarian one. In this context, the paper argues that the intensified repression of 2025 marks the consolidation of that transformation. To understand the dynamics of the 2025 elections, it is necessary to trace developments back to previous elections, particularly those of 2015, which revealed important underlying trends that have culminated in the unprecedented levels of repression and violence. The analysis divides Tanzania’s multiparty electoral history into two periods, 1995–2015 and 2020–2025. Drawing on theories of elections under authoritarian contexts, the paper analyses these periods to explain the evolution and conduct of the 2025 general elections.

This article analyses the pitfalls that characterised the emergence and
eventual demise of the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tanzania’s
semi-autonomous region of Zanzibar. Drawn from continuous political and
electoral observations in Zanzibar, the article analyses how the 2015 general
elections contributed to the eventual dissolution of the GNU. The GNU in
Zanzibar was a negotiated political settlement between two parties – the
incumbent Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and the Civic United Front (CUF).
In particular, this article looks at how the start of the constitutional review
process in Tanzania contributed to the withering of the GNU. Despite its
undeniably noble agenda, the constitutional review process resuscitated old
enmities between CCM and the CUF. The two parties’ divergent stances
on the structure of the Union revived the rifts that characterised their
relationship before the GNU. We analyse the election cycle rhetoric following
the run-up to the elections and how this widened the GNU fissures leading
to its eventual demise after the re-election in March 2016. After the 2015
elections were nullified, the CUF, which had claimed victory, boycotted the
re-election. As a result, the CCM won an overwhelming electoral victory.

Tanzania is one of the poorest countries in the world and, as is the case with other poor countries, there have been, for the past 20 years, internal and external efforts to try to free the country from the woes of poverty. There are many theories about what went wrong in Tanzania. These range from colonial domination – and its attendant problems of dependency and underdevelopment – to those which target capitalism and its ‘predatory’ nature, leading, among other things, to unequal exchange on the world market, world division of labour, and so on (Ellis 1983; Dutkiewicz & Williams 1987) as well as the ubiquitous globalisation which currently affects many aspects of life. However, not everyone believes that these theories provide a plausible explanation for what happened and why. Some see the problem as structural and also cite the inappropriate policies pursued by many poor countries, which were candidly acknowledged by the Organisation of African Unity (1986, p 17). Others (eg, Babu 1991, pp 31-4, Shivji 1974, pp 85-90) blame the way the policy was implemented. We will examine the causes of the predicament more closely and demonstrate how things are changing.