The 2024 National and provincial elections in South Africa takes place under a slightly revised electoral system, following the Constitutional Courts ruling in the matter between New Nation Movement NPC and Others versus the President of the Republic of South Africa and Others (CCT110/19) . It was determined by that Court that parliament must devise a new electoral system, one that accommodates independent candidates. Following this, the Electoral Amendment Act passed into law on 17 April 2023, the electoral framework was amended to permit the participation of independent candidates in the National Assembly elections. This has made changes in the allocation and recalculation of vacant seats in the National Assembly.
South Africa’s electoral system
South Africa has used a closed list propositional representation electoral system since the transition from apartheid to democracy. The closed list approach permits political parties to draw up the candidates lists based on their own internal party rules and processes. In this system, voters consequently vote for a party with associated candidates list determined by that party prior to the election. The system thus permits parties to treat the process of nominating candidates as a private, internal matter.
Members of the National Assembly and the nine Provincial Legislatures will still largely be elected based on a party-list, compensatory proportional representation system. Political parties will be represented in proportion to their electoral support, with the new Act, simply accommodating independent candidates within the current system. To give effect to this, the 400 seats in the National Assembly are split into two portions. One portion of 200 seats that designates each Province as a region or constituency, with each province/region being allocated a designated number of seats depending on its population size, and a further 200 compensatory seats reserved for political parties to contest.
Graphic 1: Seat Composition of National Assembly
National Assembly seat calculation
The allocation of seats for the National Assembly still uses the two-tier system to divide the 400 seats available in the National Assembly between regional seats (200) and compensatory seats (200). While the new law provides the opportunity for independent candidates to contest the National Assembly elections, independent candidates may only run for 200 regional seats which are also contested by political parties. Political parties may also contest for the remaining 200 compensatory seats.
Graphic 2: Final Seat Allocation for National and Regional to National Seats (400 in Total)
The national list seats are awarded by subtracting seats won at the region from each party’s national allocation to generate a maximally proportional result. This is described in Schedule 1A of the Electoral Act. The method remains largely the same as the method used since 1994, with an adaptation to facilitate participation of independent candidates. First, a quota will be calculated to determine the number of votes required, to win a seat. The quota is determined by dividing all the valid votes cast, by the number of seats available, then adding one to the result and disregarding fractions. This will be calculated for each region, since each region will have a different number of seats available for contestation. The total number of valid votes cast in favour of a political party or independent candidate is then divided by the quota, for each region.
Not all the seats will be allocated initially. The highest remainder method is used to allocate seats not allocated by awarding seats according to the sequence of highest surplus of votes (in National elections up to maximum of five [5] seats, thereafter, default to highest average number of votes per seat). If an independent candidate obtains votes that entitles it more than one seat, that candidates’ additional seat/s is forfeited.
While the new law provides the opportunity for independent candidates to contest the National Assembly elections, independent candidates may only run for 200 regional seats
The 200 regional seats are allocated to the nine regions/provinces
The Independent Electoral Commission is required to determine the number of seats available for each region based on the number of registered voters in the region, suggesting that populated provinces will have more regional seats than provinces with less population of registered voters. Thus, a voter will receive one regional ballot where he/she can vote either for independent candidates or political parties.
Graphic 3: Regional to National Seat Breakdown and Quota calculation
- The IEC determines a provisional allocation of regional seats for each province to both political parties and independent candidates.
- If an independent candidate meets a quota for one seat, he/she is automatically elected to the National Assembly.
- Any unallocated seats are allocated using the largest remainder method.This means that an independent candidate is only entitled to one seat, even if he/she has received enough votes to be given two seats. An independent candidate is one person, unlike parties which have multiple members to take up seats.
- This means that an independent candidate is only entitled to one seat, even if he/she has received enough votes to be given two seats. An independent candidate is one person, unlike parties which have multiple members to take up seats.
- After the allocation of seats to independent candidates who have received votes that meet the required quota, a revised quota is calculated to distribute seats to parties.
- This quota is calculated by subtracting the votes cast for the independent candidates that have won seats, and dividing it by the number of seats remaining that are available to be filled. This quota will determine the final allocation of regional seats to the political parties using the remainder of the regional seats and the number of votes received by political parties in the regional ballot. This is then set aside.
Graphic 4: Final Seat Allocation for 200 Regional to National Seats
The 200 Compensatory/ National Seats
The second 200 compensatory seats, for the second ballot with the list of political parties is calculated as follows:
- All the votes cast for a political party, on BOTH – the regional ballots across the nine provinces cast for the party added to the votes cast on the national compensatory ballot for that party.
- This will be divided by all 400 seats in the National Assembly plus one, minus seats allocated to independent candidates. The sum will give the quota required.
- The total number of votes received by parties across both the regional and national compensatory ballot will be divided by the quota, to yield the number of seats allocated to a party. At this stage, the allocation remains provisional. Because the votes cast for parties in this calculation includes the votes cast in the region, and therefore the seats allocated to them in relation to the proportion of votes cast for them is accounted for here, the seats allocated to that party are subtracted.
Thus, the final allocation of seats is concluded by subtracting the regional seats given to a party in the first allocation to ensure overall proportionality.
Seat Allocation for 200 National List Seats Only
Provincial legislature seat calculation
For Provincial legislature seats, the province will remain a single-tier multimember constituency and the simply proportional system continues. Political party candidates off party lists will compete on the same ballot as an independent candidate vying for a seat in a provincial legislature.
Three ballots in the 2024 elections
Each voter will thus receive three ballots – instead of the usual two ballots that they received in the past. The third ballot is to accommodate independent candidates that are contesting a seat in the region for one of the 200 regional National Assembly seats.
The South African Elections Weekly Briefs are produced through a partnership between The Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa, Media Monitoring Africa and the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation. The purpose of the partnership interventions is to strengthen peaceful and inclusive participatory electoral processes in South Africa.