On May 9, 2024, the National Electoral Management Agency (ANGE) declared provisional results, announcing Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, MIDI, as the winner of the May 2024 elections with 61.03% of the votes, followed by Masra with 18.53%, and Pahimi Padacké with 16.91% of the votes. While Masra proclaimed himself as the winner and contested the results before the Constitutional Council, Pahimi initially congratulated MIDI, then later also contested the results before the Constitutional Council. As the Constitutional Council prepares to announce the final results on May 16, 2024, the political landscape of Chad enters a crucial phase of its post-election evolution.
Chad shares its borders with countries plagued by internal turmoil, such as Sudan, the Central African Republic, Cameroon, Niger, and Libya. These countries experience internal conflicts, ethnic tensions, and governance issues that destabilize the region. The geopolitical context of the region is complex and marked by a series of conflicts and instabilities to which Chad is closely linked.
Chad shares its borders with countries plagued by internal turmoil, such as Sudan, the Central African Republic, Cameroon, Niger, and Libya. These countries experience internal conflicts, ethnic tensions, and governance issues that destabilize the region. The geopolitical context of the region is complex and marked by a series of conflicts and instabilities to which Chad is closely linked.
Professor Ahmat Mahamat Hassan, former Minister of Justice, rightly emphasizes that Chad occupies a central geopolitical position in the region, being at the crossroads of several major conflicts shaking Central Africa and the Sahel . Chad’s situation is all the more strategic due to the political, economic, and security interests intertwined therein.
In neighboring Sudan, tensions between the black and Arab populations of Darfur have escalated into a deadly identity conflict fueled by territorial, ethnic, and political claims.
In the Central African Republic, despite stabilization attempts, the country remains plagued by intercommunal violence, clashes between armed groups, and persistent political unrest. Security remains precarious, hindering reconstruction and development efforts.
In Cameroon, uncertainty prevails regarding the country’s political future after President Biya’s reign. Political and social tensions are exacerbated by separatist claims in English-speaking regions and protests against the central government.
Niger faces tensions with security challenges related to the presence of terrorist armed groups in the Sahel region. The eviction of French troops from Niger has also raised concerns about its impact on regional security.
In Libya, the country’s fragmentation between militias and Arab tribes has plunged the nation into chaos since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Political rivalries and struggles for control of oil resources have fueled armed clashes and hindered national reconciliation efforts.
As for Nigeria, despite the recent election of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the country remains plagued by deep ethnic divisions, religious tensions, and widespread insecurity, particularly in the northern region prone to attacks by terrorist groups such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa.
In neighboring Sudan, tensions between the black and Arab populations of Darfur have escalated into a deadly identity conflict fueled by territorial, ethnic, and political claims.
In this tumultuous regional context, Chad itself faces internal challenges, including ethnic tensions and political unrest. Rebel movements are not uncommon, reflecting persistent frustrations and discontent.
It is strongly rumored that a new rebellion has emerged in eastern Chad, led by Ousmane Dillo, the younger brother of Yaya Dillo, an influential political figure recently killed in an armed confrontation. Meanwhile, signs of rebel activity are also observed from Mamadou Abdelkrim, who seems to be returning to armed struggle by taking the path of guerrilla warfare in remote regions of the country.
Given Chad’s central position in the geopolitical dynamics of the region, as a strategic hinge where national and international interests intersect, it is highly unlikely that the results of the presidential election will be challenged by the Constitutional Council. Once again, the preservation of stability will prevail over any other consideration.
Dr Pierre Sossou is the Country Director in for EISA’s Chad Office
This blog post was made possible by the financial support of the European Union under the Grant Agreement No. NDICI AFRICA/2022/435-927. The opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of EU.
